美国抗疫失败的背后：思考“生物安全统治术”的全面坍塌

一场新冠肺炎大疫情将几十年来互相交织又此消彼长的全球化与逆全球化浪潮推入了风起云涌的变化进程中。在全球权力暗中较量、动荡转移的宏观背景下，经久不衰的文明和历史议题的重要性在涌动的思考中凸显出来。哥伦比亚大学终身人文讲席教授、比较文学与社会研究所所长刘禾教授曾在她主编的《世界秩序与文明等级》一书中（见：https://book.douban.com/subject/26612262/）对文明等级和全球史的议题寻根溯源，探究了欧美国家宰治的世界秩序在过去五百年之间是怎样形成的，以及西方文明价值标准如何上升为一种“普世性”价值标准。

这些文明等级将亚洲社会定义为“半文明”，而欧洲和北美的资本主义社会是文明国，处于文明的顶端。正如刘禾教授在序言中所指出，这一套文明标准到了20世纪演变为世界各地人群的自我认识。而今欧美国家的霸权开始遭遇挑战，其文明霸权的地位也重新受到质疑，随之而来的则是人们对未来世界秩序的呼唤和思考。而在这一过程中，进入全球史的视野，推动跨语际和跨文化的研究，对于我们今天反思自身的知识结构以及重构文明话语体系有十分重要的启迪意义。

经刘禾教授授权，下文原文刊发于2020年5月26日“世界上最著名和最有影响力的期刊之一”“学术界最负盛名的理论期刊” Critical Inquiry 杂志上，该刊最近开辟的“疫情博客”先后发表了齐泽克、拉图尔等欧美思想家的博文。刘禾教授的博文题为 "The Incalculable: Thoughts on the Collapse of the Biosecurity Regime”, 中译名为《算计和不能算计的: 当代”生物安全统治术”的全面坍塌》。她在文中对本次疫情所折射出的问题，尤其是对那些被美国政治算计排除在外的事物，亦或是大家早已知道却一直不愿承认的事实，提出一些尖锐的问题：为什么去年美国举行了大规模的生物安全演习，比如从2019年1月一直持续到8月的代号为 “赤色传染”的模拟演习，神奇地预演了从中国入侵的人传人呼吸道病毒以及由此酿成的疫情悲剧？为什么2019年10月，也就是武汉疫情爆发的前一个月，在纽约举办的另一个代号为“201事件”的高层级生物安全桌面模拟演习，竟未能阻止新冠病毒大举入侵，造成纽约空前的抗疫失败？刘禾教授提出的这些问题值得我们大家好好深思。

The Incalculable: Thoughts on the Collapse of the Biosecurity Regime

Lydia H. Liu

It makes a world of difference where the novel coronavirus travels.

For the first time, I feel as vulnerable as my eighty-eight-year old mother who is locked down in another part of the world. Neither she nor anyone I know has ever, in living memory, been through a moment like this. Has the world woken up to a new catastrophe, or are we pretending that we do not know what we have always known?

This is a terrible thought, and it haunts me as my city, New York, succumbs to the COVID-19 outbreak. Sirens wail day and night on the streets as doctors and nurses struggle to keep critically ill patients alive while exposing themselves to the deadly pathogen. To the astonishment of the world, American society has not prepared itself for a disaster of this magnitude; and worse, many in Europe and America had initially been led to believe that the novel coronavirus might be one of those isolated, regional affairs, not unlike SARS (2003), MERS (2012), and Ebola (2014) or what gets reported from those remote, disease-prone countries of Asia and Africa.[1] Therefore, US travel restrictions on flights from China on 2 February and from Iran on 29 February should have taken care of the matter, but they didn't. Recent genomic analyses suggest that the vast majority of coronavirus cases in New York came from Europe, not from Asia.[2] Blindsided by its own racism, the political calculus of the US biosecurity regime has misfired. It forgets to reckon with the incalculable.

Donald Trump's remarks during a press conference on 19 March 2020 where "corona" was crossed out and replaced with "Chinese." Source: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images.

The moral balance sheet of the ruling caste in America is bankrupt. How would you weigh the losses and gains of human lives on the scale of a global pandemic? You simply can't. People are dying, and tens of millions are suffering and faced with economic hardships. There are so many questions bearing upon the incalculable—and the possibility of a second or third wave of the pandemic in the coming months or years—that we must heed W.J.T. Mitchell's call to reflect on the moment itself.

When I say that the incalculable escapes the political calculus, I do not mean to suggest that it falls outside of the calculating machine but rather, it penetrates the core of that machine by virtue of being excluded from its terms of reckoning. The incalculable contaminates the political calculus with its own shadow—in the manner of the return of the repressed—which is why we must be careful with our facile metaphors and comparisons. The analogies with the Spanish flu and with other plagues from the past may help us talk about the tragic consequences of a major public health fallout, but they are misleading if we let them guide our thought on the fallout itself. For such analogies often dissimulate what they simulate and, therefore, can do more to obscure the truth of the moment than clarify it. To return to the question I have raised: Are we pretending that we do not know what we have always known?

Take the most recent U.S. biosecurity exercises—code named Crimson Contagion— organized by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as well as Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). This is a series of simulation exercises that ran from January to August 2019, involving Washington and 12 states including Illinois and New York.[3] During those exercises, the HHS asked its federal and local partners to imagine a fictional scenario where a global pandemic breaks out in China. What should we do to prevent the deadly respiratory virus from spreading to the U.S.? How would the federal government, state governments, hospitals and private stakeholders coordinate effective operations? Here is the HHS script as summarized by New York Times reporters:

The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.[4]

Call it prescience or extraordinary coincidence. Sometimes, fiction provides the kind of insights that intelligence or the facts on the ground cannot. But in this case, the fictional scenario bears uncanny resemblance to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus that would actually happen in Wuhan within three months of the conclusion of Crimson Contagion. Chicago, for instance, participated in the simulation exercises in the summer of 2019 and, according to Allison Arwady, commissioner for the Chicago Department of Public Health, "We actually did a preparedness exercise here in Chicago that, believe it or not, was actually written as an exercise for a new virus emerging from China with the first cases seen here in Chicago."[5]

By contrast, the government officials in Wuhan, a city regarded as China's Chicago for its central geographic location and its function as the nation's transportation hub, wasted the summer of 2019 doing absolutely nothing to prepare its eleven million residents for the possibility of a SARS-like respiratory disease. Rumors abound as to how the virus—be it crimson or red contagion—got there in the first place; while we await the pending independent WHO investigation, all we can say at this point is that people of Wuhan became the first casualty of the pandemic. But here is the rub: Had the officials there adopted the same biosecurity regime as did those in Chicago or other American cities, would Wuhan have had a better chance of averting the initial catastrophe?[6] Sadly, the answer is "no," if we look to New York for inspiration.

Not only was New York involved in the Crimson Contagion exercises last year but it was also the location of a high-level pandemic exercise code-named Event 201 that took place in October 2019, just four weeks before the actual novel coronavirus outbreak. Led by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, this tabletop exercise partnered with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to simulate the outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus modeled on SARS. The fictional pathogen, originating from Brazil, is transmittable from bats to pigs to people and then becomes highly transmissible from person to person. One poignant detail predicted by Event 201 is that the coronavirus spreads more efficiently in the low-income, densely packed neighborhoods, and this is exactly borne out by New York, Detroit, and other American cities where African American and Latinx working-class communities have suffered the highest death rates. The close parallel with Event 201's fictional scenario is so unnerving that it has prompted the Johns Hopkins Center to issue a statement to disavow its uncanny prediction of nCov-2019.

This is a shocking revelation. The political calculus of the world's most advanced biosecurity regime has failed miserably. Bear in mind that the US is ranked at the top of the 2019 Global Health Security Index, with the United Kingdom running a close second, in the most recent worldwide survey of 195 countries conducted by the same Johns Hopkins Center and Nuclear Threat Initiative and published four weeks before the actual coronavirus outbreak in China.

With our best-funded research, farsighted preparations, carefully designed simulation exercises, and timely warnings, we are supposed to outperform all other nations in coping with a pandemic. Instead, we are currently ranked highest in the number of deaths and COVID-19 cases as of late May, when I last checked. It is not as if there had been no political will or that the biosecurity regime had not seen action until 2019, leaving the federal and state governments little time to fix the vulnerable links they identified, such as the stockpile of masks and ventilators.

Has knowledge failed to translate into action? This seems unlikely. We will have learned nothing from this fiasco if we think that COVID-19 is just another worldwide public health disaster like the Spanish flu, pretending that we do not know what we have always known since the HIV/AIDS pandemic.[7] The US imperial biosecurity regime, both before and since Trump, has been unusually active in leading the world in preparations, mobilizations, and simulation exercises like Dark Winter (2001), Atlantic Storm (2005), Clade X (2018), Crimson Contagion, and Event 201, to name just a few. And then, how do we end up in a state of unpreparedness in the midst of advanced preparedness? The biosecurity regime is the key to understanding this, not the pandemic nor the virus itself. Driven by its imperial fantasy of world control, the regime has allowed itself to operate on a logic of racism in its conceptualization and implementation of the political calculus; yet it forgets to reckon with the unintended consequences of its own logic.

It is my hope that a safe and effective vaccine for SARS-Cov-2 (the virus responsible for the disease COVID-19) will become available and get us out of the mess in a year or so. Even so, will the scientists be able to put us back in control of our destiny by bringing uncertainty to tolerable levels as suggested by Lorraine Daston? I confess that I feel some trepidation: Is there the likelihood of SARS-Cov-3 or SARS-Cov-4 coming in the wake of SARS-Cov2? What if the incalculable—be it the infinitely small or the infinitely gigantic[8]—escapes the political calculus of the imperial biosecurity machine time and again?

[1] On 3 February 2020 just as the ICUs in Wuhan hospitals were being overwhelmed by dying patients, the Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece under the headline "China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia" (https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-the-real-sick-man-of-asia-11580773677). The uproar on social media over the paper's callous display of racist disregard for the suffering of nonwhites led the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to expel three WSJ journalists from China. Instead of taking urgent action to protect the lives of the American people when time was running out, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted: "mature, responsible countries understand that a free press reports facts and expresses opinions" (https://twitter.com/secpompeo/status/1230182054383562752?lang=en).

[2] Carl Simmer, "Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show," New York Times, April 8, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html.

[3] "Crimson Contagion 2019 Exercise Draft After-Action Report," Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, October, 2019, https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6824-2019-10-key-findings-and-after/05bd797500ea55be0724/optimized/full.pdf#page=1.

[4] "Before Virus Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded," New York Times, 19 March 2020 and updated March 22, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-outbreak.html.

[5] "Chicago Officials Held Exercise Last Summer Preparing for New Virus Emerging From China," 4 March 2020, NBC Chicago, https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-officials-held-exercise-last-summer-preparing-for-new-virus-emerging-in-china/2231187/.

[6] Under unprecedented lockdown measures, Wuhan's pandemic was actually contained by the central government who swiftly moved in and implemented its military style campaign. According to South China Morning Post dated 17 March (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3075396/how-chinas-military-took-frontline-role-coronavirus-crisis), the campaign was literally led by the PLA army, navy, and air force medical personnel who swooped down in full protective gear as if they engaged in a large-scale defense exercise against some bioterrorist attack.

[7] There are many academic studies on how this biosecurity regime came into being. See Andrew T. Price-Smith's Contagion and Chaos: Disease, Ecology, and National Security in the Era of Globalization (Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press. 2008).

[8] "The gigantic" is an allusion to one of Martin Heidegger's observations in "The Age of the World Picture." See The Question Concerning Technology and Other Essays, trans. William Lovitt (New York, Garland Publishing, 1977), p.135.

教授简介

刘 禾

Lydia H. LIU

哥伦比亚大学终身人文讲席教授、比较文学与社会研究所所长、美国古根海姆（Guggenheim）大奖得主。

英文著作有 《The Freudian Robot》（2010），《The Clash of Empires》（2004），《Tokens of Exchange》（1999），《Translingual Practice》（1995）等，已被译成包括中文在内的多种文字。

中文著作有：《语际书写：现代思想史写作批判纲要》（初版1999，修订版2017）、《跨语际实践》（2002，2008）、《帝国的话语政治》（2009）、《六个字母的解法》（2014），主编《持灯的使者》（2009，增订版2017）、《世界秩序与文明等级》（2016）等。

哥伦比亚大学全球中心成立于2009年，由哥伦比亚大学校长李·布林格在全球九个城市发起设立。哥大全球中心网络致力于让全校师生在更广阔的范围内开展跨学科、跨地区的教学和研究，为迎接21世纪全球化所带来的挑战和机遇搭建一个重要的联动平台。

哥大全球中心 | 北京旨在发挥哥伦比亚大学卓越的学术研究能力，在中国地区开展丰富的学术项目，并为区域发展提供建议、评估和策略方案。中心将哥伦比亚大学带到中国，加强哥大与中国的学术交流与合作，同时也将中国的最新发展动态和人才带回到哥大的校园中，催生新的学习和研究。

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原标题：《关注 | 美国抗疫失败的背后：哥大教授刘禾思考“生物安全统治术”的全面坍塌》

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